I would like to begin by once again expressing my condolences to my all my dear friends in the United Kingdom over the death of Queen Elizabeth II. For decades, she has been a steady constant in a very unstable world. My prayers, and those of the entire Behold Israel team, go out for you during this time of loss and transition.
North Korea is officially a nuclear state, according to a law recently passed by the nation’s government. As such, it reserves the right to employ a preemptive nuclear strike when necessary. Also, it declares that its nuclear status is irreversible, while barring any future denuclearization talks.
It is very unlikely that a nuclear agreement will be signed with Iran before November. This is a good thing, says Mossad head David Barnea. He went on to state, “The deal is based on Iranian lies. Iran has sought to build a nuclear weapon that endangers Israel’s existence. This deal will easily help them reach this goal under international legitimization.” Whether or not a deal is ultimately signed, few people believe that Iran will be deterred in their nuclear ambitions through any method other than force.
In the same speech, the Mossad’s Barnea openly accused the Iranian regime of using terror as their primary method of diplomacy. “Terror serves to help the survival of the regime, prevents any change by the Iranian public, undermines the sovereignty of its neighbors, and deters them from cooperating with Israel. Terror is used to extort countries all over the world.” Included in this program of terror are dozens of Iranian attacks against Israelis abroad that have been thwarted by Israel’s intelligence agency, according to its reports. As for their habit of hiding behind their proxy militias, Barnea was having none of it, saying, “The Iranian leadership must understand that attacks against Israel or Israelis, directly or indirectly by proxies, will be met with a painful response against those responsible, on Iranian soil. We will not pursue the proxies, but the ones who armed them and gave the orders, and this will happen in Iran.”
In this same vein, Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz revealed more than ten facilities where precision missiles are being manufactured in Syria for use by Iran and the Shiite militias. Using a map, he pointed out where the Syrian Military Industry (SERS) is creating these weapons for use against Israel.
The Lebanese lira is nearing a historic low, trading in the markets around a rate of 37,000 lira to one US dollar. In October 2019, the rate was 1500 lira to the US dollar.
The Russian military is suffering heavy losses in the northeastern front. The Ukrainian army seems to have caught them flatfooted and was able to repatriate thousands of square miles of land, including the city of Izium, in the worst Russian setback since March. In retaliation, Moscow has used the same weapon they are employing against the rest of Europe – energy. The Kharkiv and Donetsk regions went dark Sunday and three other regions partially lost power after the Russian army shelled power plants throughout the area. Separately, the Russians have shut down Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which supplies 20% of the nation’s electricity. There are also reports of Putin’s military attacking hydroelectric plants and destroying dams.
As mentioned above, Russia still has Europe in an energy headlock. The Eurozone is now paying for its addictions, first to the chimera of alternative energy, and second, to Russian gas. The former has disappointed them with its impracticality and limited reach, while the second is controlled by a man who won’t hesitate to shut off the spigot to extort what he wants.
In a not-at-all unconnected story, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised it rates by an unprecedented 0.75%. Ostensibly to combat its record inflation of 9.1%, energy fears have a strong hand in guiding Europe’s current economy. Along with the announcement, the ECB warned that there would likely be more rate hikes in the months to come.
As US President Joe Biden held a White House celebration over his Inflation Reduction Act, the country’s inflation rate hit 8.3% and the stock market tumbled over 1300 points. But the legendary James Taylor sang a song, so I suppose that made it all alright.
Quite possibly the most concerning economic news is China’s recession, which is only going to get worse. Severe long-term drought has caused major increases in the cost of transportation, water, and electricity. Housing is in crisis mode because of a government sponsored Ponzi scheme forcing Chinese people to buy more houses. The Belt and Road Initiative that was intended as a sort of new “Silk Road” for linking China to Europe and other parts of the world has failed due to many of the poorer countries to whom China has loaned money – Tajikistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and other African countries – defaulting on their payments. Finally, they continue their zero COVID tolerance policy that is shutting down whole cities. Mix all that together and you have a perfect economic storm. It is likely to be a very eventful six months ahead of us.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan hot spot has boiled over and there are reports of fierce fighting along the border. Armenia is claiming that the Azerbaijani army is attacking cities and towns with drones and mortars, and reports of the dead on both sides are reaching 100-150. Shia and Sunni are once again squaring off as Iran threatens Azerbaijan to not make changes to the border with Armenia, even as Turkey is sending cargo planes full of military equipment to the Azerbaijanis.
Turkey may turn to Russia for fighter jets if the US reneges on a deal to sell the country F-16s. In 2019, Turkey purchased an advanced missile defense system from Russia, causing Washington to cut them out of a deal to update their military aircraft. Fine, says Erdogan. “The US is not the only one selling war planes in the world. The UK, France, and Russia sell them as well…and others are sending us signals.” With the burgeoning relationship between Putin’s Russia and Erdogan’s Turkey, it is likely that the deal will be struck between those two nations.
Today begins the two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Among those attending will be Russian President Putin, Chinese President Xi, Indian Prime Minister Modi, Turkish President Erdogan, and Iranian President Raisi. Originally intended to combat extremism and terrorism in Central Asia, the organization has morphed to become an economic, industrial, and technology alliance. While Turkey and Iran are not full-fledged members, they still participate and Iran’s membership into the alliance is on this year’s agenda.
