West Worries as Russia Advances
Over the last week, the Russian forces have made significant advancement on the eastern front near the Donbas city of Bakhmut and in the southern front near Zaporizhzhia. Many in the West are very concerned because Ukrainian forces are suffering triple digit losses of personnel every day. Three days ago, four deputy ministers in Ukraine and five district heads all suddenly resigned, leading to speculation that Moscow is about to launch a major attack. There is pressure amongst several western countries to assist Ukraine with its dwindling military supplies. Washington has informed Kyiv that it will send 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks to them. This opened the door for Berlin to ship to Ukraine Leopard-2 tanks, as well. Poland is already sending armored vehicles and armaments to Ukraine. It is likely that they will also transport some of their own German-made Leopard-2 tanks, as will Spain. Slovakia is sending 30 T-72 Russian-made tanks for Ukraine to use against the Russians. Still, the situation for Ukraine is beginning to look dire, and it is possible that there could be a conclusion to this conflict in the next several weeks. For more information about this deteriorating situation, please watch my Breaking News Update from Tuesday.
Russian Warship Gives Scare to the Western Atlantic
Alarm bells went off when the Russian frigate, Admiral Gorshkov, deviated from its South Africa-bound course and turned west. What greatly concerned observers, particularly in the current geopolitical climate, was that the warship was carrying “unstoppable” Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles and was heading in the direction of the US coast. Then, yesterday, the Russian news agency, TASS, reported that it was just a military exercise. The Admiral Gorshkov carried out a computer simulation of firing a hypersonic missile against an enemy ship at a distance of 900 km. Earlier this month, former Russian President and firebrand Dmitry Medvedev suggested that the Zircon-armed Gorshkov should be positioned somewhere within 100 miles of the Potomac River.
Estonia Considering Closing Gulf of Finland to Russia
The government in Tallinn is planning to extend its control of the waters of the Gulf of Finland by adding a “contiguous zone” that would essentially cover the width of the body of water. This would allow them to board and examine any ships coming in from the Baltic to ensure that they were keeping in line with the sanctions that are against Russia. They could also legally board Russian warships or ban them from passing through the gulf on their way to the Baltic and eventually to the Atlantic. In the eyes of Russia, this would be a justified reason for war. And because Estonia is a NATO country, the situation could escalate very quickly.
Finland Considers Joining NATO Without Sweden
Finland is at a place where it is considering distancing itself from Sweden in order to finally have its bid for NATO membership approved by Turkey. For a new country to be admitted into the alliance, there must be a unanimous decision. Turkey has been blocking the Nordic countries over accusations that they harbor Kurdish militants. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing elections soon and is trying to show himself strong on Islam in order to garner popular support. A few days ago, someone burned a Koran outside of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, essentially sounding the death knell to any possibility that Erdogan will agree to let Sweden into NATO. If Finland is to have a chance, the country may have to change their duo status into a solo.
Syria and Russia Deploy New Air Defenses in Eastern Aleppo
Syria and Russia have recently jointly restored the al-Jarrah military air base, then armed it with the Russian-made Pantsir-S1 and Buk M2E air defense systems. Why rebuild this small base? The Damascus Airport has been regularly receiving visits from the Israeli Air Force (IAF) whenever a new shipment of military materiel arrives from Iran, so the IRGC heavy cargo planes are now starting to land occasionally at Aleppo. With the al-Jarrah base being located approximately 60 km from the International Airport at Aleppo, it is well within protection range of the Buk M2E system. This will present a challenge to the IAF as they attempt to neutralize Syrian air defenses without harming any Russians.
UAV Attack on US Airbase in Syria
Three suicide drones targeted the US Al Tanf Garrison in southeastern Syria on Friday. Two of the drones were shot down by the American Coyote air defense system. The third drone made it through, wounding two members of the Syrian Free Army. No US personnel were harmed in the attack.
US has Harmed Its Military Readiness by Supplying Ukraine
The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued a report saying that by the US sending so many long-range, precision-guided munitions to aid Ukraine in its fight against Russia, the super-power has depleted its own necessary resources. In addition, the US defense industry is not prepared to ramp up production should it become necessary. The report speculated that if Washington happened to get embroiled in a war against China over Taiwan, the US military would run out of the necessary high-tech munitions within a week.
US and Israel Launch Significant Military Exercise
In a reminder to Iran’s Islamic regime that the US and Israel are still watching them, the two countries on Monday launched Juniper Oak 2023, the “largest and most significant” joint live-fire military exercise to date. Over 7500 combined personnel, 140 aircraft, 12 naval vessels, and artillery systems from both nations are participating in the week-long drill. Earlier this month, outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Gen. Aviv Kohavi asserted that Israel is fully prepared and ready to do whatever is necessary to keep Iran from achieving nuclear weapons. Demonstrating the relationship between the US and Israel is an important part of giving that threat “teeth”. Currently, it is estimated that Iran is about “two weeks” away from having enough 90% enriched uranium for several nuclear bombs, should they choose to complete the enrichment process.
Iran Attempts a Swipe at Europe in War of Words
Last week, the European Parliament voted to recommend that the EU declare Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terror organization. In retaliation last Friday, the Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagheri Ghalibaf responded, “If the proposal of the European Parliament to declare IRGC as a terrorist organization is approved, the Iranian parliament will retaliate and put the European government that support terrorists and their armies on the terrorism list.” This is a revision of the original official response issued by the Supreme Leader, stating, “I’m rubber and you’re glue. Whatever you say bounces off me and sticks on to you.”
Currency Freefall in Iran and Lebanon
In more evidence that crime doesn’t pay, the governments in both Tehran and Beirut are seeing their currencies in perpetual freefall. In Iran on Sunday, the rial hit a record low of 450,000 to a single dollar on the open market. Last Friday, the Lebanese lira hit a record low of 50,000 to the dollar. Five days later, it had lost another ten percent, trading at 55,000 lira to the US dollar. In 2019, the exchange rate was 1500 lira to the dollar.
Brazil and Venezuela Renew Relationships
For four years the tensions have been high between Brazil and Venezuela, ever since the previous Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro backed Venezuelan National Assembly President Juan Guaidó in his 2019 attempt to oust Nicolás Maduro from the country’s presidency. Now that Bolsonaro is out and Lula da Silva, a man after Maduro’s own heart, is in, it looks like the two countries are prepared to kiss and make up. Sadly, it is very likely that Lula’s presidency will have the same destructive effect upon Brazil that Maduro has had on Venezuela. Pray for the people of Brazil!
