This has been a crazy week around the globe. So much has flared up, and, when combined with all the conflict already going on, we can see the tinder box that the world has become. So, this week we will make this a “Wars and Rumors of Wars” review. While it won’t be exhaustive, I want you to see seven areas where conflict either already exists, has just begun, or has the potential to blow up at any minute. I am doing this, because I want this to be available to you as a quick reference guide to help you understand the background of each situation as it unfolds. I would once again implore you to subscribe to my Telegram channel which I am constantly updating because events are moving so quickly. Also, watch my Breaking News Updates, which are located on my YouTube channel.
China v. Taiwan
Taiwan temporarily stole the headlines last week. Despite the country’s last-minute pleas for the invitation to be canceled, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi insisted on making an official visit to the island, much to the anger of Beijing who saw it as an encroachment on land that they believe still belongs to them. After many threats and much posturing, Pelosi left and it seemed on the surface as if the US had gotten away with this act of political belligerence.
However, we must remember that China plays the long game. The initial concern was that China might use the provocation to finally invade the small island, as they have long threatened to do. But that is looking at the situation from a western stratagem. Instead, we see that using the cover of military exercises, Beijing has effectively surrounded Taiwan. These drills, which began Tuesday, are unprecedented as they will include missiles flying over the island and PLA forces entering past Taiwan’s 12-mile territorial waters line, essentially saying the border no longer exists. Like an old school siege, China is now in a position to strangle Taipei until their economy collapses. As soon as Pelosi left, Beijing initiated this strategy, freezing the import of food products, including fruit and fish from Taiwan, and temporarily stopping the export of sand to the country.
If the Taiwanese people are hoping for help from the West, they will likely be disappointed. Despite the bluster of many in Washington surrounding Pelosi’s “bold” trip, as soon as she returned the White House put out a statement making it clear that the administration in no way supports an independent Taiwan. Color me confused. And if you think that the UN might step in to help, recognize that China has just assumed the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of August. As it stands, Beijing has the power to inflict irreparable damage upon the world both militarily and, more frighteningly, economically, so don’t expect any bold retaliatory moves or heavy sanctions by the West. For more about this situation, please watch my Breaking News Updates from last week.
Russia v. Ukraine/NATO
Russia continues its tragic pounding of Ukraine. Last week in Mykolaiv, five civilians were killed and seven more wounded when a missile landed near a public transport stop. While what is already taking place is terrible enough, the concern that it could escalate beyond the borders of the two nations makes this conflict of grave concern. At the UN on Tuesday, Russian diplomat Alexander Trofimov made it clear that Moscow could decide to use nuclear weapons in response to an invasion by NATO countries. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin plays a game of economic chicken with the nations of Europe. After Gazprom last week said that they would reduce to 20% capacity the flow of gas into Germany, it has now stopped shipments of gas altogether to Latvia. The closer we come to winter, the more dire this situation will become. The EU has made an agreement with Egypt for Israeli gas to flow to Europe, but that help is still at least a couple of years away. One of the parties will have to blink, and Europe has a much greater track record of caving to pressure. But all it will take is one NATO country to push back militarily against Russia’s pressure for all the NATO countries to get pulled into a shooting war with Moscow and its allies – a conflict which we have seen could have nuclear consequences.
Kosovo v. Serbia
A dispute over license plates and government-issued ID cards exploded into gunfire last week in Kosovo. The breakaway state which declared its independence from Serbia in 2008 is recognized by a little less than half the UN countries, including the United States and much of Europe. In the years following the separation of the countries, the tension continued to be thick between the Muslim Kosovars and the Christian Serbs. This is just the latest of the issues that have put the two groups at odds. Serbia, which surrounds Kosovo’s northern and eastern borders, is closely watching how the ethnic Serbs are being treated. Said Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić regarding a possible conflict with Kosovo, “All I can say is that we will ask for peace and ask for peace, but I will tell you right away: there will be no surrender and Serbia will win. If they try to start persecuting Serbs, bullying Serbs, killing Serbs, Serbia will win!” We know from history that major conflicts can begin in these Slavic countries, such as when Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated in Bosnia and Herzegovina, just to the west of Serbia, triggering World War I.
Iraq v. Iraq
What began as a conflict over a pro-Iranian candidate for Prime Minister can quite possibly turn into another Iraqi civil war. Last week, a political alliance fronted by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki put forth as their candidate Mohammed al-Sudani, a former government minister and one who many see as a probable puppet of the pro-Iranian al-Maliki. In strong opposition is a group headed by nationalist, anti-Iranian Muqtada al-Sadr. This powerful cleric led his protestors on Saturday to storm Iraq’s parliament building and initiate a sit-in that lasted until yesterday. The US embassy in Iraq’s green zone has elevated alertness to the highest level. This Shiite v. Shiite conflict could quickly escalate into another Iraqi civil war. The US and Western nations need to ask themselves whether, if this happens, they can afford to lose 4 million barrels of oil per day. Particularly after the Saudis and the OPEC+ nations essentially snubbed President Joe Biden following his trip to Saudi Arabia by only increasing daily oil production by 100,000 barrels, rather than the millions that the president wanted.
Iran v. Israel/Saudi Arabia
The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency said Monday that his country has the technical capability to produce an atomic bomb but has no plans to do so. “Phew,” said the rest of the world, even as Israel recalled its Mossad agents from Tehran and ran all of its air strike plans through the shredder. The fact is that Iran can say whatever it wants, but no one can verify their statements because the cameras remain shut off throughout their facilities. Russia and China are pushing hard for a new nuclear deal with their friends in Tehran. The US sent a negotiator to the nuclear talks in Vienna to try to appease that axis of evil. It is likely that Iran will get all that it wants.
The concern that Iran will militarize their nuclear program is great, and they have shown nothing to allay that fear. This is why I felt that the situation was important enough to make it the central issue in my second Nir Tavor thriller, By Way of Deception, which is now available for pre-order. A nuclear Iran is a destabilizing factor not just because of their radical regime, but because of their many terrorist proxy militias who would jump at the chance to employ a “suitcase nuke” or some sort of dirty bomb.
Saudi Arabia knows that it is also in Iran’s crosshairs, because the Shiite regime in Tehran views them as decadent Sunni apostates. If Iran’s nuclear program does become weaponized, then Riyadh intends to demand nuclear warheads from Pakistan since it was the Saudis who funded the Pakistanis’ successful nuclear program in 1998. With Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all possessing nuclear weapons, what could possibly go wrong? It recalls the statement on Monday by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in which he said, “Today, humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation.”
Terrorism v. Everybody
On Sunday, a US drone strike killed al Qaeda’s top dog, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Acting on information provided by the Taliban, the US hellfire missile took out the cleric as he stood on the balcony of his house, leaving his wife and daughter inside unscathed. We must give credit where credit is due – this was a well-deserved fate for this man orchestrated and brilliantly executed by the US military. The insertion of al-Qaeda into the news cycle is a reminder that the world is one major terrorist attack away from another far-reaching war. Despite the great counter-terrorism measures that are taking place around the world by many organizations, it truly is a matter not of “if” but of “when”.
Azerbaijan v. Armenia
Nagorno-Karabakh, now officially known as the Republic of Artsakh, is a breakaway state within Azerbaijan. It declared its independence in 1991 which led to war with Azerbaijan in 1991-94 and again in 2020. Because the population of Nagorno-Karabakh is almost exclusively Armenian, it has been a constant source of conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Within the last few days, fighting has commenced once again between Azerbaijan and the Armenians within Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile, Iran is using the opportunity to pour its forces, mainly armor, towards its border with Azerbaijan. Whether it is to the south with Iran or the west with Armenia, Azerbaijan could easily find itself in a one or possibly two front war very soon. The ties that both of the latter countries have with NATO could make this a very interesting and volatile predicament, particularly if Iran gets involved.
