Tuesday night saw the second Israeli airstrike on the Aleppo airport in a week. The purpose of the attacks was to shorten the runways so that larger aircraft are unable to land. This is directly related to Iran’s attempts to ship weapons to Syria using large cargo planes. Also Tuesday night, Deir ez-Zor, Syria, was attacked by unknown warplanes. There are two possibilities for who might have carried out the strike. First, it may have been the US synchronizing with Israel so that they can attack in conjunction with one another. Second, Israel may be leading this strike also, and just informing the US of their actions. The base that was attacked in Deir ez-Zor was originally Syrian. Then the war began, and Russia took over and upgraded the facilities. But now that Russia has pulled its troops from the base in favor of the war in Ukraine, Iran has swooped in and set up shop. Thus, it was the Iranians who were targeted in this attack.
This week began on a difficult note for the Kremlin as on Monday a suicide bomber killed two staff members outside the Russian embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan. Security forces shot the perpetrator, but it is unclear if the bomber was able to still set off the bomb or if the bullets are what detonated the explosion. Among the dead are a Russian diplomat and a member of the embassy’s security. While initial reports put the number of civilians killed much higher, casualties amongst the public still were at least four deceased and more than ten wounded.
Europe is beginning to suffocate, as Russian President Vladimir Putin slowly twists his energy garrote tighter and tighter. Meanwhile, a distant voice calls out from Mar-a-Lago in Florida, “Hey, EU, I told you so.” Now, Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled energy company, has said they will completely halt the flow of gas to Europe through Nord Stream 1 and it will remain shut off until Europe lifts the economic sanctions on Moscow. In turn, Europe accused Russia of weaponizing its energy, to which Russia responded, “Yeah, and…?”
The EU is receiving no sympathy from the rest of the world. Rather than step up oil production to help offset the economic damage from the gas shortages, OPEC+ is reducing their oil production by about one hundred thousand barrels per day. This is despite calls from US President Joe Biden for large increases. China is offering to sell the EU some of their surplus liquified natural gas (LNG). But before you think that suddenly Beijing has become altruistic, the reason they have surplus LNG is that they are buying Russian excess that had previously gone to Europe. China is then loading up that excess onto ships and sailing it thousands of miles to Europe where they are selling it to the gas-starved Europeans at a huge mark-up.
A little over a week ago, Austria stepped in to rescue its primary energy supplier, Wien Energie, by providing a two-billion-euro bailout. Four days later, both Sweden and Finland had to jump in to keep their power utilities solvent. Sweden is giving up to 250 billion kronor ($23 billion) in credit guarantees to its energy companies which are facing immediate technical bankruptcy. Finland is offering loans and guarantees up to 10 billion euros ($10 billion) to its utilities. Norway said it is closely watching the situation but does not yet feel that they need to act.
It is not surprising to see that not only did the Euro fall below the dollar earlier this year, but it has now reached a 20-year-low. Why is this so important? Because it is one of the key factors that is going to lead to the massive civil unrest that is soon to come. A fascinating report by Verisk Maplecroft determined that out of the 198 countries evaluated, 101 have seen a rise in social unrest over the last quarter. This includes both established and emerging countries alike. The expectation is that with the energy shortages and economic downturns, the dissatisfaction within the populace is only going to increase. It will take a major disappointment of the masses toward their governments to allow a singular leader to step in and unite the people of many nations under one head. This is certainly the direction that this world appears to be going.
Even as the Kremlin is continuing to make enemies to the west, they are deepening their ties with their new BFFs in the Iranian regime. Tehran has confirmed that they’ve placed a bid to purchase Russian Sukhoi SU-35 advanced fighter jets. Highly maneuverable with long-range air-to-surface strike capabilities, these fighters will greatly modernize the Iranian air force. Let’s hope for the sake of their pilots that these planes are more reliable than the military drones that Iran sold to the Russians.
On Wednesday, the IAEA, nuclear watchdog of the UN, stated that the agency was “not in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively peaceful.” In other breaking news, the IAEA has discovered that water is wet and that the sky is blue.
A senior diplomat who saw an IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear readiness stated, “Iran now can produce 25 kg [of uranium] at 90% if they want to.” That is both the amount and the enrichment level that the IAEA has determined is necessary to create a nuclear weapon. Currently, the uranium is stored at 60% enrichment, but the UN’s nuclear watchdog reported that it would only take three to four weeks to increase it to the needed level. According to the same report, the IAEA concludes, “It seems that Iran will be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for three nuclear bombs in one month and enough for five bombs in four months.” Wake up, IAEA! The Ayatollah’s regime already has enough enriched uranium! You know it and I know it. All it takes now is them making a strategic decision to move ahead with a bomb!
For most of the world, it seems that the nuclear deal is dead. The EU believes that the US government process for lifting sanctions will make completion of a deal impossible prior to the November elections. An anticipated conservative backlash against the very unpopular Biden administration has Europe thinking that there is no hope for a deal after the election. It seems right now that the only ones who think that a deal can still happen are Biden and his democrats. That possibility has Israel concerned enough that the head of the Mossad, David Barnea, traveled to Washington DC to meet with various top officials in the administration, Pentagon, and State Department. Prior to Barnea taking his position in June, his predecessor, Yossi Cohen, met with President Biden for the same purpose of dissuasion.
Tensions are building between Turkey and Greece over the Aegean Islands. The Turkish government was content to allow the islands to remain under Greek sovereignty as long as they remained demilitarized. However, now Erdogan is accusing Athens of building a naval force within the island group. The Turkish president is adamant that Greece must stop or risk paying a “heavy price”. Erdogan warned, “When the time comes, we will do what is necessary. As we say, all of a sudden, we can come overnight.”
Musaad al-Halawi, former leader of al-Hisbah (the secret police of ISIS), was killed in an attack in Deir ez-Zor, Syria, by the US-led coalition. Al-Hisbah is the “morality police” of ISIS and is known for violently ensuring that all follow its interpretation of the laws of the Koran.
