As the withering attacks continue against Iran by the United States and Israel, the regime in Tehran’s ability to fight is dwindling.
Iran’s nuclear megaplex is in ruins, its ballistic missile stockpiles are being systematically trashed, and its proxies are severely depleted. Though Hezbollah in Lebanon quickly joined the war alongside Iran, Israel is aggressively striking back. They, too, will likely be overpowered by the Israeli military in the not-too-distant future.
Iran’s options have been severely reduced, leaving it with one card left: blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
The regime is putting all its chips on the Strait, believing that driving up oil prices will force the world to demand an end to the warโor at least give them a reprieve. This location is the last vestige of power the regime wields.
It is an eerie reminder of the Arab oil embargo of October of 1973, when the Arab nations retaliated against the countries that assisted Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Oil production was cut massively.
In the wake of that, Dr. John Walvoord wrote a book titled “Armageddon Oil and the Middle East Crisis,” discussing the oil crisis that was facing the United States. The book became a tremendous bestseller, with two or three million copies sold. I had the privilege, years later, of updating that book with his son, John E. Walvoord. We changed the title to “Armageddon, Oil, and Terror.”
I was reminded of those books as I witnessed developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and how oil is being cut off from much of the world.
One of the chapters in that book was called “crude awakening,” and that is truly an accurate description of what we are currently experiencing in our world. Many thought these oil crises were over, but here we are again, decades later, facing the same situation: a Middle East oil crisis.
Iran is backed into a corner, and they have demonstrated their willingness to do whatever it takes to retain control over the world’s most vital energy choke point. There are threats right now of oil reaching $200 a barrel.
According to the dictionary, “dire straits” means “a state of extreme distress,” or “a bad or difficult situation or state of affairs.” That is an apt description today of the world’s direst straitโthat narrow body of water situated right in Iran’s backyard: the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s one of the world’s most important and dangerous flashpoints. Just last month, Russia and Iran (two nations aligned in the Gog-Magog war in Ezekiel 38-39) held joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman, at the southern opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is the number one shipping channel in the world, and has been a focal point of US-Iranian confrontations for more than 30 years.
It is the only sea passage from the oil-rich Persian Gulf out to the open sea, making it a vital gateway for global oil supply. Of course, ships traversing that strait must pass through Iranian waters.
About 21 million barrels of oil go through the Strait on a daily basis, representing roughly 20% (some believ 27%) of the world’s crude oil and petroleum products. Additionally, 22% of liquefied natural gas globally passes through the Strait. These numbers are significant, and that is why Iran wants to shut off the spigot.
The Strait of Hormuz is 90 miles long and 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. The shipping lanes in each direction are just two miles wide. This narrow area of operation provides Iran a tactical advantage, making it easy to saturate with mines or swarm with speedboats.
A dark shadow right now looms over the waters of the Strait as massive tankers sit on hold.
Skirmishes in the Persian Gulf between Iran and the United States have been going on for decades. During the 1980s, 40% of the world’s oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz, so any disruption, no matter how slight, threatened to create chaos in the global oil market.
The “Tanker War” occurred between 1984 and 1988, during the Iraq-Iran War. The United States waged an intense one-day battle against Iranian forces in and around the Strait in 1988. The Iran-US shooting match resulted in the disabling of several Iranian warships. In some ways, the tanker war between the US and Iran never ended; it became indefinitely suspended. Both sides stopped shooting, but nothing was truly settled. The “Tanker War” was simply a perilous prelude to what’s happening in the Persian Gulf today and what will persist in the future.
Another conflict erupted in the summer of 2019, when six oil tankers came under attack. Explosions damaged two after leaving the strait, and four were struck within the United Arab Emirates (UAE) territorial waters.
In response to these provocations, the United States deployed an additional 14,000 troops to the region, including an aircraft carrier, promising to strike back and hit hard at any similar Iranian actions.
The Strait of Hormuz has remained at the center of escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran for decades. Right now, the Strait remains Iran’s most potent non-nuclear weapon. A desperate, weakened Iran, with fewer strategic options, sees the Strait as its last remaining leverage, a geographical choke point where it holds a strategic advantage.
The narrow waters give Iran the ability to threaten global energy supplies with relatively modest military assetsโmines, swarms of fast boats, anti-ship missiles, and dronesโin a confrontation where Iran is losing ground on every front. The Strait has become its last resort.
I think there will be an increasing scramble for resources in the end times. Oil is still key today. Many people believed that by now we would be beyond threats of an oil embargo or an oil crisis. But as the Middle East build-up continues to gain momentum, as prophesied by Ezekiel and other biblical prophets, the Strait of Hormuz will undoubtedly remain a significant factor.
This is not just a shipping lane, it’s a powder keg, and the fuse grows shorter with every passing confrontation.
