It has been three weeks since the Israeli Air Force struck sensitive military sites in retaliation for Iran launching the largest ballistic missile barrage in military history against Israel. Now, weeks later, we are learning that this Israeli counterstrike against Iran was far more painful for the Iranian regime than we initially knew.
After the dust has settled, we are now learning that Israel apparently struck a sensitive secret Iranian nuclear weapons research facility. It’s no wonder that the Iranian regime is vowing revenge.
Iran’s nuclear sites are now on the table. They have been “fair game” since Hamas and Hezbollah were largely decimatedโHamas almost completely and Hezbollah reeling on the same path. The Iranian regime has been exposed. They were exposed even further in that strike three weeks ago, on October 26th, when their air defense systems were destroyed. Might I add that Russian-supplied s300 air defense systems made up at least part of those Iranian air defenses.
We have been saying for some time that nuclear weapon sites are on the table, and it seems Israel took that to heart. While we are not talking about Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, nuclear reactor, or uranium enrichment facility, this was indeed a secret nuclear weapons research facility in Parchin that was destroyed by the Israeli Air Force.
You can see now why Iran is weeping, gnashing its teeth, and vowing revengeโwhich now apparently has been delayed since Donald Trump was elected to take office in 66 days.
Let’s get into this.
As I mentioned earlier, Iran’s attack on October 1st was the largest ballistic missile attack in military history, when some 200 ballistic missiles were launched toward Israel. Thankfully, that attack was a massive failure. It also came five months after the April 13th Iranian attack involving some 300 projectiles (cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones) that were launched at Israelโan attack which also was entirely unsuccessful after 99% of those incoming projectiles were intercepted. Nonetheless, Israel cannot countenance its greatest enemy launching 500 projectiles in the span of five months. Needless to say, Israel felt compelled to respond, and understandably so.
It is for that reason we all expected a massive response. You have got to send a message. This level of attack cannot be winked at. Speculation then swirled surrounding whether Israel would target Iran’s oil infrastructure, its leadership (which went into hiding after Israel took out the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah), the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp, or its nuclear sites.
When this Israeli counterstrike against Iran happened three weeks ago, it came in three waves involving 100 IAF fighter jetsโall of which were unscathed and returned to Israel safely without a scratch.
For three hours in the middle of the night, Israeli fighter jets were operating with impunity in the skies of Iran, carrying out surgical strikes on military facilities. That alone shows how substandard Iran’s air defenses truly were.
During the first wave that night, for lack of a better word, the counterstrike seemed to many to be almost underwhelming, or at least, it wasn’t what we had all been expecting. At first, people were disappointed, suggesting Israel had caved to the demands of the Biden-Harris Administration, who have been attempting to restrain Israel. Without a doubt, the Biden-Harris Administration has been endeavoring to pressure Israel at every turn, whether in Gaza, in Lebanon, or in its response to Iranian aggression and provocations. Others suggested that Israel was “playing nice,” knowing at the time that the election was only a week and a half away.
Despite what could be initially perceived about the strike, I underscored at the time the importance of letting the dust settle. Then the dust settled. We all had a night to sleep on it, and the following day revealed the magnitude of the attack. It wasn’t good for the Iranian regime. In fact, it was very, very painful.
Israel struck strategic ballistic missile and drone factories and destroyed Iran’s air defensesโthat was big, and you got an inkling of that about two or three days after when Iranian officials were evaluating the damage and vowing revenge. Israel’s counterstrike was not underwhelming; it was, in a sense, overwhelming.
Here is what we now know: a secret nuclear facility apparently was struck. That alone, even if the air defenses weren’t destroyed, was worth the price of admission.
The Times of Israel reported that the Israeli strike on the sensitive Iranian nuclear facility “destroyed equipment needed for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.”
The Times of Israel further detailed:
The Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear research facility in Parchin destroyed sophisticated equipment that will make it much harder for Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon if it chooses to do so, two Israeli officials tell the Axios news site.
“This equipment is a bottleneck. Without it the Iranians are stuck,” a senior Israeli official tells Axios.
“This is equipment the Iranians would need in the future if they want to make progress towards a nuclear bomb. Now they don’t have it anymore and it is not trivial. They will need to find another solution and we will see it,” the official adds.
A US Official, spilling the beans to Axios, stated: “[Iran] conducted scientific activity that could lay the ground for the production of a nuclear weapon. It was a top secret thing. A small part of the Iranian government knew about this, but most of the Iranian government didn’t.”
The US official went on to say, and this is juicy stuff, “The strike was a not so subtle message that the Israelis have significant insight into the Iranian system even when it comes to things that were kept top secret and known to a very small group of people in the Iranian government.”
Folks, needless to say, this is major. We don’t at this time know whether Israel set Iran’s nuclear program back years, but according to Israeli and US officials, this hurt.
It was a top secret facility, and this should remind all of us once again that Israel has impeccable intelligence on the ground inside Iran. Israel has invaluable assets. How else could Israel carry out the elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a guest house in Tehran under the regime’s nose just hours after he met with the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei? Israel’s incredible Intel on the ground in Iran was proven once again with this strike.
More broadly, what does this mean for Iran’s nuclear program? The Iranian ring of fire that they have surrounded Israel with on all sides has unraveled before our very eyes and the eyes of the Ayatollah. Iran is exposed. Hezbollah and Hamas were Iran’s flank, the insurance policy for their nuclear program.
Not long ago, Iran could safeguard its nuclear facilities by threatening to unleash Hamas and particularly Hezbollah upon Israel. The idea of over 150,000 rockets raining down on every inch of the Jewish State certainly gave Israel pauseโbut this is past tense. Hamas is now a rag-tag guerilla group that can’t even manage to fire off a rocket after its leader, Yahya Sinwar, was killed in Rafah a few weeks ago. Hezbollah is a shell of its former self, at only 30% of its previous capabilities, according to reports. They’re dying, literally, to have a ceasefire with Israel.
The insurance policy is gone. Iran’s fierce deterrent to shield its nuclear facilities is no longer powerful enough to matter. Iran’s nuclear sites right now are sitting ducks. They’re quaking in their boots.
The only possible deterrent they now have available to them is to obtain nuclear weapons as quickly as possible. It is the North Korea model. Once the Kim Dynasty acquired the bomb, the entire conversation changed. All of a sudden, they had a powerful deterrent. The Iranian regime is a jihadist regimeโthat, in its very essence, makes them unpredictable. I don’t think we’ll ever get to that day. Israel is going to strike and strike hard if it has any credible, actionable intelligence that Iran’s on the verge.
I think often the Western mindโparticularly on the naive, feckless leftโcan’t wrap their heads around the fact that there are evil people in the world who are true believers in their ideology, who want to kill you, and they mean what they say. If the 20th century, the century of Mao, Stalin, Saddam, and Hitler, taught us anything, it’s that when evil men tell you they want to kill you, you should take them at their word.
Iran’s been very transparent in saying they want to wipe Israel off the map, and when they are done, they are coming for America. They call Israel “the little Satan” and America “the great Satan.”
They also have no regard for human life, as we have seen time and time again. Think back to the Iraq war in the 1980s, where they took thousands of Iranian boys, as young as 9 and 10 years old, put plastic keys around their necks, and said, “My son, these are the keys to paradise, if you go and clear those minefields you will be in heaven tonight.” Thousands of young Iranian boys, their best and brightest, put these plastic keys around their necks, yelled “allahu akbar,” stormed across the minefields, and blew themselves to bits. When you have a regime like that, all bets are off.
I say all that to say this: these are people who cannot be permitted to have nuclear weapons. Israel understands that. Donald Trump understands that. The Biden-Harris Administration also understood that, but they didn’t have the guts to do anything about it. There was no teeth behind the threats of Biden and Harrisโand the Ayatollah in Iran knew it.
There’s a new sheriff in town, and his inauguration on January 20th will have a profound impact on the Middle East. Now, the big question is, will the “big move” between Israel and Iran occur before January 20th?
Evil is arrogant, evil is overconfident, evil is stupid, and evil often overplays its hand. So, we shall see if Iran will choose to make its move.
